The sharp decline in economic activity registered in Spain over 2008 and 2009 has no precedents in recent history. After ten prosperous years with an average GDP growth of 3.7%, the current recession places non-judgemental forecasting models under stress. This paper evaluates the Spanish GDP...

El fuerte descenso de la actividad económica registrado en España durante 2009 y 2010 no tiene precedentes en la historia más reciente. Tras diez años de prosperidad con un crecimiento medio del 3.7%, el escenario macroeconómico actual somete a estrés los modelos de predicción...

The sharp decline in economic activity registered in Spain over 2008 and 2009 has no precedents in recent history. After ten prosperous years with an average GDP growth of 3.7%, the current recession places non-judgemental forecasting models under stress. This paper evaluates the Spanish GDP...