Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) has recently been discussed in the financial literature as an effective way to account for model uncertainty. In this paper we compare BMA to a new model uncertainty framework introduced by Yang (2004), called Aggregate Forecasting Through Exponential Reweighting,...

Analyse dessen, was eigentlich nie passieren dürfte, was jedoch ständig geschieht und unser Leben gewaltig beeinflusst, was mithilfe statistischer Modelle permanent aus unserem Denken ausgeblendet wird. (Joachim Weigelt)

Wer Talebs Hauptwerk "Der schwarze Schwan" (BA 12/08) gelesen hat weiß, dass mit dem Untertitel "Konsequenzen aus der Krise" nicht vordergründig konkrete Handlungsempfehlungen zur Überwindung der krisenhaften Situation erwartet werden dürfen. Die Krise als Beispiel für einen "schwarzen...

We implement a long-horizon static and dynamic portfolio allocation involvinga risk-free and a risky asset. This model is calibrated at a quarterly frequencyfor ten European countries. We also use maximum-likelihood estimates andBayesian estimates to account for parameter uncertainty. We nd that...

We introduce heterogeneity in agents’ risk aversion into a general equilibrium asset pricing framework with recursive preferences. Agents trade in a stock, whose dividend is the only source of consumption, and in a short-term bond in zero net supply. In equilibrium the less risk averse agents...

This paper investigates the impact of individual bank fundamental variables onstock market returns using data from a panel of 235 European banks from 1991to 2005. The sample period marks a significant transition in the European bankingsector, characterized by higher competition, lower profit...

It has been found in the literature that the overnight Eurodollar rate and the effective Fedfunds rate exhibit similar calendar-day effects caused by the Federal reserve regulationsand accounting conventions and characteristics of the Fed funds market. However, it wasnot documented whether the...

In the last decade, portfolio credit risk measurement has improved significantly. The currentstate-of-the-art models analyze the value of the portfolio at a certain risk horizon, e.g. one year. Mostpopular has become the Merton-type one-factor model of Vasicek, that builds the fundament of...