We analyze a range of macrofinancial indicators to extract signals about cyclical systemic risk across 107 economies over 1995-2020. We construct composite indices of underlying liquidity, solvency and mispricing risks and analyze their patterns over the financial cycle. We find that liquidity...

We propose the CoJPoD, a novel framework explicitly linking the cross-sectional and cyclical dimensions of systemic risk. In this framework, banking sector distress in the form of the joint probability of default of financial intermediaries (reflecting contagion from both direct and indirect...

This paper studies the properties and systemic risk implications of sectoral credit cycles for the United States over the period 1960Q1 – 2017Q3. The analysis shows that the credit cycle in the United States was indeed characterised by systemically relevant sector-specific boom/bust cycles...

This paper presents an approach to a macroprudential stress test for the euro area banking system, comprising the 91 largest euro area credit institutions across 19 countries. The approach involves modelling banks'reactions to changing economic conditions. It also examines the effects of adverse...