We describe stationarity and ergodicity (SE) regions for a recently proposed class of score driven dynamic correlation models. These models have important applications in empirical work. The regions are derived from sufficiency conditions in Bougerol (1993) and take a non-standard form. We show...

Many economic studies on inflation forecasting have found favorable results when inflation is modeled as a stationary process around a slowly time-varying trend. In contrast, the existing studies on interest rate forecasting either treat yields as being stationary, without any shifting...

We characterize the dynamic properties of Generalized Autoregressive Score (GAS) processes by identifying regions of the parameter space that imply stationarity and ergodicity. We show how these regions are affected by the choice of parameterization and scaling, which are key features of GAS...

Credit risk models should reflect the observation that the relevant value of collateral is generally not the average value of the asset over all possible states of nature. In most cases, the relevant value of collateral for the lender is its secondary market value in bad states of nature, where...

Most multivariate variance or volatility models suffer from a common problem, the “curse of dimensionality”. For this reason, most are fitted under strong parametric restrictions that reduce the interpretation and flexibility of the models. Recently, the literature has focused on...

Attack and defense strengths of football teams vary over time due to changes in the teams of players or their managers. We develop a statistical model for the analysis and forecasting of football match results which are assumed to come from a bivariate Poisson distribution with intensity...

This paper proposes a new set of transformed polynomial functions that provide a flexible setting for nonlinear autoregressive modeling of the conditional mean while at the same time ensuring the strict stationarity, ergodicity, fading memory and existence of moments of the implied stochastic...

The paper analyses the properties and outcomes of competitive dynamics in industries characterized by heterogeneous firms and continuing stochastic entry. A formal analytical apparatus is developed, able to derive some generic properties of the underlying competition process combining persistent...

This paper considers a sequence of discrete-time random walk markets with a single risky asset, and gives conditions for the existence of arbitrage opportunities or free lunches with vanishing risk, of the form of waiting to buy and selling the next period, with no shorting, and furthermore for...

This paper make straightforward extensions to Anderson's (1996) nonparametric statistical tests of stochastic dominance criteria to bivariate distributions. These test are applied to a time series of cross-section datasets on household level total expenditure and non labour market time in the UK.