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Do central bank forecasts matter for professional forecasters?

Kotłowski, Jacek - In: Finance a úvěr 65 (2015) 6, pp. 432-454

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011415746

The unbearable lightness of equilibria in a low interest rate environment

Ascari, Guido; Mavroeidis, Sophocles - 2021

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012794705

The zero-interest-rate and the role of the exchange rate for monetary policy in Japan

Coenen, Günter; Wieland, Volker - 2003

In this paper we study the role of the exchange rate in conducting monetary policy in an economy with near-zero nominal interest rates as experienced in Japan since the mid-1990s. Our analysis is based on an estimated model of Japan, the United States and the euro area with rational expectations...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009765351

Inflationary expectatives : predicting, persistence, and disagreement

Caetano, Sidney Martins; Silva Júnior, Geraldo Edmundo - In: Análise econômica : revista da Faculdade de Ciências … 30 (2012) 58, pp. 53-58

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011542297

Shadow-rate VARs

Carriero, Andrea; Clark, Todd E.; Marcellino, Massimiliano - 2023

VARs are a popular tool for forecasting and structural analysis, but ill-suited to handle occasionally binding constraints, like the effective lower bound on nominal interest rates. We extend the VAR framework by modeling interest rates as censored observations of a latent shadow-rate process,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014320745

Forecast uncertainty and the taylor rule

Bauer, Christian; Neuenkirch, Matthias - 2015

standard deviation of individual forecasts around the median Consensus Forecast as proxy for forecast uncertainty. Our sample … react significantly to inflation forecast uncertainty by reducing their policy rates in times of higher inflation … forecast uncertainty. We conclude with some implications for optimal monetary policy rules and central bank watchers. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010512077

Quasi ex-ante inflation forecast uncertainty

Charemza, Wojciech; Díaz, Carlos; Makarova, Svetlana D. - In: International journal of forecasting 35 (2019) 3, pp. 994-1007

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012305215

Forecast uncertainty and the Taylor rule

Bauer, Christian; Neuenkirch, Matthias - In: Journal of international money and finance 77 (2017), pp. 99-116

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011788094

Central bank transparency and the consensus forecast : what does the Economist poll of forecasters tell us?

Trabelsi, Emna - In: Research in international business and finance 38 (2016), pp. 338-359

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011640664

Central banks' forecasts and their bias : evidence, effects and explanation

Charemza, Wojciech; Ladley, Dan - In: International journal of forecasting 32 (2016) 3, pp. 804-817

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011621817