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the debt constraint and the heterogeneity of households and financial accelerator mechanism through the financing …
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This paper investigates the empirical relation between consumer and expert expectations about macroeconomic conditions in Germany. Using data from the EU Consumer Confidence Survey and the ZEW business expectations, static models and error-correction models are estimated explaining consumer...
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the forecast exercise and for the full sample. However, the rational expectations model typically predicts real GDP growth … forecast horizon, while the adaptive learning model predicts better for the outer quarters …
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A simple criterion based on the properties of the forecast error is presented to evaluate the accuracy of forecasts …
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This paper tests the ability of popular New Keynesian models, which are traditionally used to study monetary policy and business cycles, to match the data regarding a key channel for monetary transmission: the dynamic interactions between macroeconomic variables and their corresponding...
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