forecast error on these contracts, on average positive and increasing with the forecast horizon. Then, we propose a method for … correcting futures rates thanks to macroeconomic and financial variables. Finally, in the framework of an out-of-sample forecast …

that judgmental survey forecasts outperform model-based ones, often by a wide margin. A very simple forecast that is just a … glide path between the survey assessment of inflation in the current-quarter and the long-run survey forecast value turns … out to be competitive with the actual survey forecast and thereby does about as well or better than model-based forecasts …