We demonstrate how Bayesian shrinkage can address problems with utilizing large information sets to calculate trend and cycle via a multivariate Beveridge-Nelson (BN) decomposition. We illustrate our approach by estimating the U.S. output gap with large Bayesian vector autoregressions that...

The concepts of potential growth and the output gap are important components in assessing the business cycle and productive capacity of an economy. However, being unobservable, these measures must be estimated. The Fiscal Compact will result in these concepts being used to judge EU member states...

The paper assesses the impact of adding information on financial cycles on the output gap estimates for eight advanced economies using two unobserved components models: a reduced form extended Hodrick-Prescott filter, and a standard semi-structural unobserved components model. To complement...