Este trabalho tem como objetivo principal o estudo do comportamento da taxa de câmbio a partir da flutuação da moeda brasileira em 1999 – momento em que o Brasil adotou o regime de câmbio flutuante. Analisa-se, através do modelo de paridade de poder de compra, se efetivamente a moeda...

This paper uses a unique new monthly US-UK real exchange rate series for the January 1794 – December 2009 period to reexamine the academic debate over purchasing power parity (PPP). The consensus view described by Rogoff (1996) is that PPP holds in the long-run, but short run deviations are...

We examine the asymptotic behavior of unit root tests against nonlinear alternatives of the exponential smooth transition type if the data is erroneously nonlinearly transformed. We show analytically and by a Monte Carlo study that the probability of rejecting the correct null of a random walk...

This report proposes a methodology to express OECD indicators of support in real terms and establishes specific purchasing power parities for a broad range of commodities so as to compare developments in output volume and prices at an aggregate level. It analyses the evolution of prices, farm...

Simple exchange rate models based on economic fundamentals were shown to have a difficulty in beating the random walk when predicting the exchange rates out of sample in the modern floating era. Using methods from machine learning -- sequential adaptive ridge regression -- that prevent...

This paper studies the behaviour of inflation rate, short-term interest rate and nominal exchange rate after leaving fixed exchange rate arrangement and move to floating. We find that countries with rigid exchange rate policy, less frequently adjusted central parity and narrow exchange rate...

Finding evidence of the theoretical relationship between exchange rate and inflation has been a difficult proposition in an exchange rate market, despite many studies in developed markets. Three recent papers employing a new research design, Theil’s Divisia index method, found that this...

It is well-known that there is a large degree of uncertainty around Rogoff's (1996) consensus half-life of the real exchange rate. To obtain a more efficient estimator, we develop a system method that combines the Taylor rule and a standard exchange rate model to estimate half-lives. Further, we...

Following the high variability of floating exchange rates after the collapse of the Bretton-Wood System, policymakers have increasingly relied on weighted exchange rate indexes (nominal effective exchange rate index) or indexes of competitiveness (real effective exchange rate or...

This paper examines mean reversion in real effective exchange rates in six leading Latin American economies during the XXth century using a new data set. A unit-root approach is complemented by an error-correction model including key fundamentals such as terms of trade, trade openness and...