The goal of this article is an estimate of the objective forward-looking equity risk premium relative to bonds through history - specifically, since 1802. For correct evaluation, such a complex topic requires several careful steps: To gauge the risk premium for stocks relative to bonds, we need...

A tactical asset allocation process most typically adds value during the volatile periods of the market cycle, when there is substantial divergence in asset class returns. A tactical options program will add value during the trendless periods of the market cycle. Two such programs together are...

The price of a stock may differ from its fundamental value by a random noise. In this case, small-capitalization and value stocks are more likely to have negative noise, while large-capitalization and growth stocks are likely to have positive noise. Negative price noise implies that...

We model a continuous time one factor economy where stock prices are noisy proxies of the informationally efficient values. The pricing error process is modeled as a mean-reverting process; this gives us a well defined notion of over-pricing and under-pricing in the market, and stocks fluctuates...

A trillion-dollar industry is based on investing in or benchmarking to capitalization-weighted indexes, even though the finance literature rejects the mean-variance efficiency of such indexes. This study investigates whether stock market indexes based on an array of cap-indifferent measures of...

The goal of this article is an estimate of the objective forward-looking U.S. equity risk premium relative to bonds through history mdash; specifically, since 1802. For correct evaluation, such a complex topic requires several careful steps: To gauge the risk premium for stocks relative to...

A trillion-dollar industry is based on investing in or benchmarking to capitalization-weighted indexes, even though the finance literature rejects the mean-variance efficiency of such indexes. This study investigates whether stock market indexes based on an array of cap-indifferent measures of...

Two important concepts played a key role in the bull market of the 1990s. Both represent fundamental flaws in logic. Both are demonstrably untrue. First, many investors believed that earnings could grow faster than the macroeconomy. In fact, earnings must grow slower than GDP because the growth...

We investigate whether dividend policy, as observed in the payout ratio of the U.S. equity market portfolio, forecasts future aggregate earnings growth. The historical evidence strongly suggests that expected future earnings growth is fastest when current payout ratios are high and slowest when...

We model a continuous time one factor economy where stock prices are noisy proxies of the informationally efficient stock values. The pricing error process is modeled as a mean-reverting process, which gives us a well-defined notion of over-pricing (positive pricing error) and under-pricing...