We model a continuous time one factor economy where stock prices are noisy proxies of the informationally efficient stock values. The pricing error process is modeled as a mean-reverting process, which gives us a well-defined notion of over-pricing (positive pricing error) and under-pricing...

Many market observers point to the very high fraction of earnings retained (or low dividend payout ratio) among companies today as a sign that future earnings growth will be well above historical norms. This view is sometimes interpreted as an extension of the work of Miller and Modigliani. They...

The goal of this article is an estimate of the objective forward-looking equity risk premium relative to bonds through history - specifically, since 1802. For correct evaluation, such a complex topic requires several careful steps: To gauge the risk premium for stocks relative to bonds, we need...

A tactical asset allocation process most typically adds value during the volatile periods of the market cycle, when there is substantial divergence in asset class returns. A tactical options program will add value during the trendless periods of the market cycle. Two such programs together are...

The authors compare the price of a stock at a given point in time with its ex post realized value, which is defined by the discounted net present value of subsequent actual cash distributions. This measure is called the Clairvoyant Value, that is, the value that a clairvoyant investor with...

In historical testing, valuation-indifferent weighting applied to U.S. and global equities has produced statistically significant and economically large outperformance when compared with traditional capitalization-weighted benchmarks. In this article, the authors apply valuation-indifferent...

We model a continuous time one factor economy where stock prices are noisy proxies of the informationally efficient values. The pricing error process is modeled as a mean-reverting process; this gives us a well defined notion of over-pricing and under-pricing in the market, and stocks fluctuates...