Building on previous works on business fluctuations, we model the propagation of financial distress in a network of regions, each populated by heterogeneous interacting firms and banks. In order to diversify risk, firm sell goods outside their own region and borrow from banks located there....

Building on previous works on business fluctuations, we model the propagation of financial distress in a network of regions, each populated by heterogeneous inter- acting firms and banks. In order to diversify risk, firm sell goods outside their own region and borrow from banks located there....

This paper proposes a novel approach to understand contagion of financial distress in the banking system, which takes into account the spatial nature of the phenomena. We use a Bayesian spatial autoregressive model that treats the likelihood of default of each bank as endogenous, and dependent...

We propose an explanation for default contagion based on a Lucas model with two independent debt-financed trees. The transmission mechanism is that variations in the size of one tree impact the level of risk premium and the default decision for all borrowers. If a negative shock hits one tree,...

We introduce a bivariate Markov chain counting process with contagion for modelling the clustering arrival of loss claims with delayed settlement for an insurance company. It is a general continuous-time model framework that also has the potential to be applicable to modelling the clustering...

This new report from the Geneva Association looks at the relationship between insurance wind-downs and systemic risk, concluding that frameworks for dealing with such risks in banking "would be a poor guide" to necessary changes in insurance. The report argues that all necessary recovery and...