We outline a procedure for consistent estimation of marginal and joint default risk in the euro area financial system. We interpret the latter risk as the intrinsic financial system fragility and derive several systemic fragility indicators for euro area banks and sovereigns, based on CDS...

This paper studies the effects of systematic distress and sectoral distress in the context of default/bankruptcy prediction using a large sample of U.S. public company default data from 1991 to 2009. I construct measures to proxy for economy-wide systematic distress and sectoral distress based...

We investigate the propagation of contagion through banks' balance sheets in a two-country model. We simulate an increase in non-performing loans in one bank, and study the effects on other banks and the macro economy of each country. We show that credit crunches destabilize each economy in the...

In order to derive closed-form expressions of the prices of credit derivatives, standard credit-risk models typically price the default intensities, but not the default events themselves. The default indicator is replaced by an appropriate prediction and the prediction error, that is the...

This paper investigates the impact of Contingent Convertible (CoCo) bonds on systemic risk using Eisenberg-Noe's financial network method, where the network is linked by debt relationship. The default contagion and loss amplification due to network linkage measure the systemic risk, from which...

We examine whether corporate bankruptcies influence bank loan characteristics of geographically proximate firms. Controlling for industry contagion and local economic conditions, firms headquartered near a bankruptcy event experience a seven basis point increase in loan spreads. The effect is...