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macroeconomic indicators by economists convey different information about the macroeconomy, and whether such differences have … aggregate earnings, the converse is not true. Additional tests suggest that analysts underreact to economists' negative forecast … revisions (i.e., aggregate earnings forecast errors are predictably more negative following economists' downward forecast …
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I construct a novel measure of aggregate dispersion in economists' opinion on macroeconomic forecasts. The measure …
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The period leading up to the Great Depression witnessed the rise of the economic forecasters, pioneers who sought to use the tools of science to predict the future, with the aim of profiting from their forecasts. This book chronicles the lives and careers of the men who defined this first wave...
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The paper shows that there is a substantial degree of heterogeneity in the ability of Fed watchers to forecast US monetary policy decisions. Based on a novel database for 268 professional forecasters since 1999, the average forecast error of FOMC decisions varies 5 to 10 basis points between the...
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