This paper features an analysis of major currency exchange rate movements in relation to the US dollar, as constituted in US dollar terms. Euro, British pound, Chinese yuan, and Japanese yen are modelled using a variety of non-linear models, including smooth transition regression models,...

This paper features an analysis of major currency exchange rate movements in relation to the US dollar, as constituted in US dollar terms. Euro, British pound, Chinese yuan, and Japanese yen are modelled using a variety of non-linear models, including smooth transition regression models,...

The British pound left the ERM on 16 September 1992 after a period of turbulence. UK monetary policy soon shifted to lower short interest rates, and an inflation target was announced. This paper uses daily option prices to estimate how the market's probability distribution of the future...