We develop a general method to study the effects of non-linear taxation in dynamic settings using variational arguments. We first derive general theoretical formulas that characterize the welfare effects of local tax reforms and, in particular, the optimal tax system, potentially restricted...

This paper studies a Diamond–Dybvig model of providing insurance against unobservable liquidity shocks in the presence of unobservable trades. We show that competitive equilibria are inefficient. A social planner finds it beneficial to introduce a wedge between the interest rate implicit...

This paper studies structural transformation of Soviet Russia in 1928-1940 from an agrarian to an industrial economy through the lens of a two-sector neoclassical growth model. We construct a large dataset that covers Soviet Russia during 1928-1940 and Tsarist Russia during 1885-1913. We use a...

In this paper we describe how to optimally design a disability insurance system. The key friction in the model is imperfectly observable disability. We solve a dynamic mechanism design problem and provide a theoretical and numerical characterization of the social optimum. We then propose a...

This paper derives novel formulas for the welfare gains of any tax reform around initial (optimal or suboptimal) dynamic tax systems. We use a perturbation-based method to express these formulas in terms of easily interpretable and empirically estimable parameters: elasticities of income and...

Year-ahead forecasts of tax revenues incorporated into IMF programs for low-income countries, from 1993 to 1999, are compared with the corresponding outturns. The accuracy of these forecasts was low, with a mean absolute percentage error of 16 percent. Forecasts of tax revenues as a percentage...

A decade into the transition, many of the successor states of the former Soviet Union (FSU) continue to use energy sector quasi-fiscal activities (QFAs), especially low energy prices and the toleration of payment arrears, to provide large implicit and untargeted subsidies. These activities...

We study the impact of unobservable replacements on the sustainability of reputation effects in frequently repeated games played by a long run player facing a sequence of short run players. At the beginning of every period the long-run player is replaced with a new long run player with...

We study the impact of unobservable replacements on the sustainability of reputation effects in frequently repeated games played by a long run player facing a sequence of short run players. At the beginning of every period the long-run player is replaced with a new long run player with...