Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) are common high quantile- based risk measures adopted in financial … regulations and risk management. In this paper, we propose a tail risk measure based on the most probable maximum size of risk … events (MPMR) that can occur over a length of time. MPMR underscores the dependence of the tail risk on the risk management …

We comprehensively investigate the usefulness of tail risk measures proposed in the literature. We evaluate both the …) performs the best overall. While some other tail risk measures excel at specialized tasks, BT11Q performs well in all tests …

The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BIS) has recently sanctioned Expected Shortfall (ES) as the market risk … measure to be used for banking regulatory purposes, replacing the well-known Value-at-Risk (VaR). This change is motivated by … the appealing theoretical properties of ES as a measure of risk and the poor properties of VaR. In particular, VaR fails …