In recent publications standard methods of random matrix theory were applied to principal components analysis of high-dimensional financial data. We discuss the fundamental results and potential shortcomings of random matrix theory in the light of the stylized facts of empirical finance....

We show that a simple and intuitive three-parameter equation fits remarkably well the evolution of the gross domestic product (GDP) in current and constant dollars of many countries during the times of recession and recovery. We then argue that it can be used to detect shocks and discuss its...

In this note the author discusses the problem of updating forecasts in a time-discrete forecasting model when information arrives between the current period and the next period. To use the information that arrives between two periods, he assumes that the process between two periods can be...

The present value model of the current account has been very popular, as it provides an optimal benchmark to which actual current account series have often been compared. We show why persistence in observed current account data makes the estimated optimal series very sensitive to small-sample...

The occurrence of unit roots in economic time series has far reaching consequences for univariate as well as multivariate econometric modelling. Therefore, unit root tests are nowadays the starting point of most empirical time series studies. The oldest and most widely used test is due to Dickey...

This study dates business cycles in 10 European countries, the United States, and Japan between 1925 and 1936. The aim is to establish a consistent dating of the world economic crisis, which is a precondition for understanding the sharp economic decline in many countries during the interwar...

In dieser Untersuchung wird gezeigt, wie neuere ökonometrische Verfahren zur Modellierung und Prognose von Volatilitäten auf Aktienmärkten eingesetzt werden können. Hierzu werden verschiedene Varianten aus der Klasse der ARCH Modelle und das Markov-Mischungsmodell herangezogen. Die...

The serial dependency of multivariate financial data will often be filtered by considering the residuals of univariate GARCH models adapted to every single series. This is the correct filtering strategy if the multivariate process follows a so-called copula based multivariate dynamic model...

The scaling function from multiresolution analysis can be used to constuct a smoothing tool in the context of time series analysis. We give a time series smoothing function for which we show the properties of a quasilinear moving average. Furthermore; we discuss its features and especially derive...