Purpose – The purpose of this article is to estimate value at risk (VaR) using quantile regression and provide a risk analysis for defaultable bond portfolios. Design/methodology/approach – The method proposed is based on quantile regression pioneered by Koenker and Bassett. The quantile...

A new model of near integration is formulated in which the local to unity parameter is identifiable and consistently estimable with time series data. The properties of the model are investigated, new functional laws for near integrated time series are obtained, and consistent estimators of the...

This paper studies the asymptotic properties of a nonstationary partially linear regression model. In particular, we allow for covariates to enter the unit root (or near unit root) model in a nonparametric fashion, so that our model is an extension of the semiparametric model analyzed in...

We propose a modification of kernel time series regression estimators that improves efficiency when the innovation process is autocorrelated. The procedure is based on a pre-whitening transformation of the dependent variable that has to be estimated from the data. We establish the asymptotic...

This paper is concerned with developing a semiparametric panel model to explain the trend in UK temperatures and other weather outcomes over the last century. We work with the monthly averaged maximum and minimum temperatures observed at the twenty six Meteorological Office stations. The data is...

Conditional quantile estimation is an essential ingredient in modern risk management. Although GARCH processes have proven highly successful in modeling financial data it is generally recognized that it would be useful to consider a broader class of processes capable of representing more...

There has been a large amount of research on long memory in economic and financial time series. However, there is still no consensus on its presence in these series. We argue in this article that spurious short memory may be found because of the use of bandwidth parameters that diverge too...

This paper studies estimation of deterministic trends in time series models with persistency. In particular, a joint estimation of the trend coefficient and the autoregressive parametere is proposed and asympototic analysis on the nonlinear estimator is provided. The joint estimator is compared...