In this paper a post-sample prediction test is derived forestimators based on the Efficient Method of Moments. The mainadvantage of this particular test over other stability tests isthat no time-consuming estimation of the structural parameters forthe post-sample is needed. The asymptotic...

This paper suggests a unified framework for testing the adequacy of anestimated GARCH model. Nothing more complicated than standard asymptotictheory is required. Parametric tests of no ARCH in standardized errors,symmetry, and parameter constancy are suggested. Estimating the alternativewhen the...

In this paper we test for (Generalized) AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity [(G)ARCH] in daily data on 22 exchange rates and 13 stock market indices using the standard Lagrange Multiplier [LM] test for GARCH and a LM test that is resistant to patches of additive outliers. The data span...

We show that a sufficient condition for the identification ofall parameters of the censored regression model with astochastic and unobserved threshold is that the errors are jointlynormally distributed. Exclusion restrictions are not needed.

The distribution of a functional of two correlated vector Brownian motions isapproximated by a Gamma distribution. This functional represents the limiting distribution for cointegration tests with stationary exogenous regressors, but also for cointegration tests based on a non-Gaussian...

Motivated by the problem of setting prediction intervals in time seriesanalysis, this investigation is concerned with recovering a regression functionm(X_t) on the basis of noisy observations taking at random design pointsX_t.It is presumed that the corresponding observations are corrupted by...

Most of the available monthly interest data series consist of monthlyaverages of daily observations. It is well-known that this averaging introduces spurious autocorrelation effectsin the first differences of the series. It isexactly this differenced series we are interested in when...

Parameters in AutoRegressive Moving Average (ARMA) models are locally nonidentified, due to the problem of root cancellation. Parameters can be constructed which represent this identification problem. We argue that ARMA parameters should be analyzed conditional on these identifying...

Accurate prediction of the frequency of extreme events is of primary importance in many financialapplications such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) analysis. We propose a semi-parametric method for VaRevaluation. The largest risks are modelled parametrically, while smaller risks are captured by the...

In this paper, we make use of state space models toinvestigate the presence of stochastic trends in economic time series. Amodel is specified where such a trend can enter either in the autoregressiverepresentation or in a separate state equation. Tests based on the formerare analogous to...