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We build an equilibrium model to explain why stock return predictability concentrates in bad times. The key feature is that investors use different forecasting models, and hence assess uncertainty differently. As economic conditions deteriorate, uncertainty rises and investors' opinions...
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models featuring smooth ambiguity preferences. We rely on semi-nonparametric estimation of a flexible auxiliary model in our … structural estimation. Based on the market and aggregate consumption data, our estimation provides statistical support for asset …-varying volatility are preferred to the long-run risk model. We analyze asset pricing implications of the estimated models …
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This paper generalizes the basic Wishart multivariate stochastic volatility model of Philipov and Glickman (2006) and … process. The model allows for state-dependent (co)variance and correlation levels and state-dependent volatility spillover …-sample fit and the VaR forecasting performance relative to the basic model. -- Multivariate stochastic volatility ; Dynamic …
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