Many studies have attributed the housing bubble or misalignment of home price and income to inefficient markets, irrational behavior, excessive leverage, financial innovations, macroeconomic imbalances, the Fed’s easy money policy, and repeal of the Glass-Steagal Act. However, no study...

This paper estimates a forward-looking Taylor-type interest rate reaction function for Swedish central bank’s inflation-targeting policy and a developed model with the exchange rate taken into account. Based on real-time quarterly macroeconomic time-series from Sweden in the first decade...

In this paper, we use survey forecasts to investigate the impact of forward guidance on the predictability of future short- and long-term interest rates in four countries: New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, and the United States. New Zealand began providing forward guidance in 1997, Norway in 2005,...

This paper proposed a new optimal design of Early Warning Systems (EWS) to detect early warning signals of an impending financial crisis. The problem of EWS was formulated from a policy maker's perspective. Hence the probability threshold was obtained by minimizing the policy maker's welfare...

Current study has focused on the bank lending channel of monetary transmission in EU countries. The aim of the paper is to carry out an empirical investigation of the bank lending channel of monetary transmission in EMU and non-EMU countries. As estimation method we use GMM model with pooled...

Since the international financial crisis, the external environment was an important source of risks and uncertainties, the banking and financial markets of most of the states were marked by successive waves of turbulence, central banks reverted the task of ensuring financial stability to the...

Presentation to the joint convention of the Idaho, Nevada, and Oregon Bankers Associations, Coeur d'Alene, ID, July 9, 2012

Textbook monetary theory holds that increasing the money supply leads to higher inflation. However, the Federal Reserve has tripled the monetary base since 2008 without inflation surging. With interest rates at historically low levels and the economy still struggling, the normal money multiplier...

The standard argument for abstracting from capital accumulation in sticky-price macro models is based on their short-run focus: over this horizon, capital does not move much. This argument is more problematic in the context of real exchange rate (RER) dynamics, which are very persistent. In this...

Remarks before the Puerto Rico Chamber of Commerce Annual Convention, Fajardo, Puerto Rico.