An important indicator for policy makers is whether long-term inflation expectations (IEs) are anchored. In this paper, I employ Bayesian time-varying news regressions to assess whether medium- and long-term IEs are anchored. First, I show that the sensitivity of long-term IEs to most...

We estimate a Bayesian learning model with heterogeneity aimed at explaining the evolution of expert disagreement in forecasting real GDP growth and inflation over 24 monthly horizons for G7 countries during 1990-2007. Professional forecasters are found to begin and have relatively more success...

This paper introduces a new model of trend (or underlying) inflation. In contrast to many earlier approaches, which allow for trend inflation to evolve according to a random walk, ours is a bounded model which ensures that trend inflation is constrained to lie in an interval. The bounds of this...

The Euro area as a whole has experienced a marked downward trend in inflation over the past decades and, concomitantly, a protracted period of depressed activity. Can permanent and gradual shifts in monetary policy be held responsible for these dynamics? To answer this question, we embed...

One of the pioneers of inflation targeting (IT), the Bank of Canada is now considering a possibility of switching to price-level-path targeting (PLPT), where past deviations of inflation from the target would have to be offset in the future, bringing the price level back to a predetermined path....

This paper analyses the effects of the foreign exchange re-serves accumulation on the key nominal and real macroeconomicvariables (GDP, employment, prices and exchange rates) in BRICcountries (Brazil, Russia, India, China). VAR model was used toempirically examine the effect of accumulation of...