Im Laufe des Jahres 1993 war die Metallgesellschaft Refining & Marketing (MGRM), eine US-amerikanische Tochtergesellschaft der Metallgesellschaft AG, in großem Umfang die Verpflichtung eingegangen, langfristig Öl zu Festpreisen zu liefern. Das dadurch entstehende Preisrisiko sollte über...

Asset price processes are completely described by information processes and investors´ preferences. In this paper we derive the relationship between the process of investors´ expectations of the terminal stock price and asset prices in a general continous time pricing kernel framework. To...

We propose a completely kernel based method of estimating the call price function or the state price density of options. The new estimator of the call price function fulfills the constraints like monotonicity and convexity given in Breeden and Litzenberger (1978) without necessarily estimating...

Financial markets embed expectations of central bank policy into asset prices. This paper compares two approaches that extract a probability density of market beliefs. The first is a simulatedmoments estimator for option volatilities described in Mizrach (2002); the second is a new approach...

In this paper we apply statistical inference techniques to build neural network models which are able to explain the prices of call options written on the German stock index DAX. By testing for the explanatory power of several input variables serving as network inputs, some insight into the...

Various empirical studies have shown that the time-varying volatility of asset returns can be described by GARCH (generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity) models. The corresponding GARCH option pricing model of Duan (1995) is capable of depicting the smile-effect which often...

In this note we present a simple method to include the no-arbitrage condition into the derivation of conditional densities using the principle of maximum entropy. For the case of identically and independently distributed returns, we easily derive that the whole process estimated that way is...

The mainstream model of option pricing is based on an exogenously given process of price movements. The implication of this assumption is that price movements are not affected by actions of market participants. However, if we assume that there are indeed impacts on the price movements it no...

We explain the valuation and correlation hedging of Foreign Exchange Basket Options in a multi-dimensional Black-Scholes model that allows including the smile. The technique presented is a fast analytic approximation to an accurate solution of the valuation problem.

We focus on closed-form option pricing in Heston's stochastic volatility model, in which closed-form formulas exist only for few option types. Most of these closed-form solutions are constructed from characteristic functions. We follow this approach and derive multivariate characteristic...