Because volatility of the underlying asset price is a critical factor affecting option prices and hedge ratios, the modeling of volatility and its dynamics is of vital interest to traders, investors, and risk managers. This modeling is a difficult task because the path of volatility during the...

We analyse the ability of equity market-based distances-to-default and subordinated bond spreads to signal a material weakening in banks' financial condition. Using option pricing, we show that both indicators are complete and unbiased indicators of bank fragility. We empirically test these...

A forecast of the correlation between two asset prices is required to price or hedge an option whose payoff depends on both asset prices or to measure the risk of a portfolio whose return depends on both asset prices. However, a number of factors make it difficult to evaluate forecasts of...

We develop a general method to infer martingale equivalent probability density functions (PDFs) for asset prices using American options prices. The early exercise feature of American options precludes expressing the option price in terms of the PDF of the price of the underlying asset. We derive...

We present a model in which the addition of an option market leads to sunspot equilibria in an economy which has no sunspot equilibrium before the market is introduced. This phenomenon occurs because the payoff of an option contract is contingent upon market prices, and while prices are taken as...