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After a first phasing out of the ECB's net asset purchases at end-2018, the question of how a future tightening of the ECB's monetary policy may affect countries located in the vicinity of the euro area has gained prominence, but has been left largely unanswered so far. Our paper aims to close...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012833000
In practice, the expectations theory of the term structure is employed extensively in monetary policy analysis despite … its empirical failure. This paper performs a conditional test of the theory that is directly relevant to monetary theory … and policy. It finds that the theory holds quite well conditional on identified monetary policy shocks, but fails …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012778440
Japan's aging and shrinking population could lower the natural rate of interest and, together with low inflation expectations, challenge the Bank of Japan's efforts to reflate the economy. This paper uses a semi-structural model to estimate the impact of demographics on the natural rate in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012889159
Have the macroeconomic effects of QE programs been overestimated empirically? Using a large set of model specifications that differ in the degree of time-variation in parameters, the answer is yes. Our forecasting exercise suggests that it is crucial to allow for time-variation in parameters,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012890228
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012765781
We use a dynamic hierarchical factor model to identify the national, regional, and local factors of the city-level housing price growth in China from 2005 to 2015. During the zero-lower-bound (ZLB) episode in the U.S., local factors account for 78% of variations in the month-on-month city-level...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012854498
In this paper we assess the macroeconomic effects of two of the flagship unconventional monetary policies used by the Bank of England during the later stages of the global economic crisis: additional quantitative easing (QE) and the introduction of the Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS). We argue...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013017591
This paper is the first to comprehensively assess the impact of the euro area's non-standard monetary policy measures on south-eastern Europe. By employing bilateral BVAR models, I am able to estimate the response of output and prices for each country, as well as to shed more light on potential...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012933044
This essay studies the fundamental causes of the monetary policy regime switches within rational expectations models. I introduce a threshold-switching monetary policy process into the model that links the policy stance to the fundamental shocks by an autoregressive regime strength index. It...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013251913
This paper aims at assessing the macroeconomic impact of unconventional monetary policies (UMPs) that the ECB has put in place in the euro area after the 2007 financial crisis. With this purpose, we first document how the relative importance of the main transmission channels of such measures has...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013213269