-area inflation. As in a Phillips curve relationship we assume that inflation quantiles depend on past inflation, the output gap, and … distribution. Overall, the quantile regression approach describes the distribution of inflation better than a benchmark univariate … trend-cycle model with stochastic volatility, which is known to perform very well in forecasting inflation. In an out …

In this paper, we study the fit and the predictive performance of the Phillips curve for euro area inflation with … regard to different inflation series, time periods and predictor variables, notably different global factors. We compare the … prices, global consumer inflation, global economic slack and foreign demand. We find that traditional global indicators such …

This paper estimates a time-varying AR-GARCH model of inflation producing measures of inflation uncertainty for the … policy regime change associated with the start of EMU in 1999. The main findings are as follows. Steady-state inflation and … inflation uncertainty have declined steadily since the inception of EMU, whilst short-run uncertainty has increased, mainly …

This paper estimates Inflation risk premia in the Euro area based on nominal swap yields, inflation swap rates, CPI and … conclude that inflation risk premia is insignificant, where a model including surveys will that it significant. Finally our …

) with a special focus on persistence of real wages, wage and price inflation. The analysis is conducted within a structural … model, as well as the cointegrating properties of the estimated system. Overall, in the long run, wage and price inflation …

This paper decomposes the time-varying effect of exogenous exchange rate shocks on euro area countries inflation into … quarters of the past six years, especially in turning point periods. Our main results indicate that headline inflation in euro … inflation this increasing sensitivity is solely reliant on a sustained surge in the degree of comovement, for energy inflation …

How long does it take for exchange rate changes to pass through into inflation? Does it make a difference whether the …

How long does it take for exchange rate changes to pass through into inflation? Does it make a difference whether the …

This paper asks whether a textbook Phillips curve can explain the behavior of core inflation in the euro area. A … critical feature of the analysis is that we measure core inflation with the weighted median of industry inflation rates, which … is less volatile than the common measure of inflation excluding food and energy prices. We find that fluctuations in core …

there is no shorter-term trade-off between fast real convergence and low inflation. Such a tradeoff characterises the … dynamic process moving the economy along the regression line. But the actual dynamics may run off that line. High inflation is …