Transcripts from the US Federal Open Markets Committee provide, albeit with a lag, valuable information on the monetary policymaking process at the Federal Reserve Bank. We use the data compiled by Chappell et al. (2005b) on preferred interest rates (not votes) of individual FOMC members....

The macroeconomy is a complicated dynamic system with significant uncertainties that make modelling difficult. Consequently, decision-makers consider multiple models that provide different predictions and policy recommendations and then synthesize that information into a policy decision. We use...