We study the response of stock prices to monetary policy, distinguishing effects of exogenous shocks from "Delphic" shocks that reveal the Federal Reserve's macroeconomic forecasts. To decompose monetary policy surprises into these separate components we construct a measure of Federal Reserve...

A monetary economy comprises a vast array of market-clearing interest rates. Central banks exert a direct influence over only a narrow subset of these rates: the rate at which they supply marginal funds to the commercial banking system. Accordingly, the market interest rates which impinge upon...

This paper documents a negative relationship between pre-FOMC announcement returns and post-FOMC announcement returns, independent of the state of the economy and sample period. We propose and test a reversal strategy consisting in buying (selling) E-Mini S&P 500 just before the announcement, if...

This paper investigates the relationship between central bank (reverse) auctions and bill market liquidity. The analysis includes data on the purchases of bills in the auctions by the Dutch Central Bank under the European Central Bank's Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP). The results...

We construct a new measure of monetary policy surprise based on a natural language processing algorithm designed to capture contextual nuances in FOMC statements. Specifically we exploit cross-sectional variations across alternative FOMC statements to identify the statement's tone, and compare...

I show that the well-documented pre-FOMC drift and high returns on FOMC day are realized only on the small subset of FOMC days preceded by key macro data releases. On the other two-thirds of all FOMC days, there is neither drift nor any announcement premium. Predictors of pre-FOMC drift (VIX and...

•Bitcoin valuation is largely a function of both the real yield and expected inflation.•Fed assets in relation to real gdp drive the real yield.•Money supply in excess of real gdp drives inflation.•Bitcoin, like gold, faces twin headwinds if the fed sticks with announced policy and...

As economies recover from the pandemic, major central banks are beginning “lift-off.” This paper looks at issues beyond lift-off to full normalization or “cruising altitude.” Two novel models are used: 1) a yield curve model where the riskless rate is computed directly from bond yields...

This paper investigates the relationship between central bank (reverse) auctions and bill market liquidity. The analysis includes data on the purchases of bills in the auctions by the Dutch Central Bank under the European Central Bank’s Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP). The results...

This article assesses the rationale, operations, and implications of the Federal Reserve’s market functioning purchases. The security purchases were introduced in March 2020, when massive customer selling of U.S. Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities triggered by the...