This paper deals with the problem of testing for the presence of autocorrelation in a system of general linear models (Seemingly Unrelated Regressions, SUR) when the model is formulated as a vector autoregression (VAR) with exogenous variables. The solution presented in this paper is a...

We study here the effects of future tax and budgetary shocks on present levels of economic activity and real interest rates in a nonmonetary and possibly non-Ricardian economy. The paper first takes up an (unanticipated) temporary tax cut to be effective on a given future date " a delayed "debt...

Paper prepared for the "Conference on Leadership and Nation Building" sponsored by the Emirates Center for Strategic Studies & Research, Abu Dhabi, UAE, 5-7 November 2000.

I compare welfare generated by a credit contract with individual liability and a contract with joint liability. The problem is credit rationing caused by limited liability and unobservable investment decisions. Joint liability induces borrowers to monitor each other, however the lender can also...

I argue for thinking of program evaluation as a decision problem. There are two steps. First, a counselor determines which program (treatment or control) each individual joins, based for example on maximizing the probability of employment or expected earnings. Second, the policymaker decides...

Theories featuring multiple equilibria are now widespread across many fields of economics. Yet little empirical work has asked if such multiple equilibria are salient features of real economies. We examine this in the context of the Allied bombing of Japanese cities and industries in WWII. We...

We consider the distribution of economic activity within a country in light of three leading theories - increasing returns, random growth, and locational fundamentals. To do so, we examine the distribution of regional population in Japan from the Stone Age to the modern era. We also consider the...