This paper offers a continuous time, general equilibrium model where a risky asset is traded among risk-averse overconfident investors. Two kinds of overconfidence are introduced: investors exhibit relative overconfidence if each investor believes her model is better than others' and aggregate...

Market anomalies in stock markets should be related to investors' trading strategies, which are based on their psychologies along with other factors. The fact that some weather variables affect investor's performance and mood can also affect market prices substantially.In this study it is being...

This paper compares Value Line and I/B/E/S analyst earnings forecasts in terms of accuracy, rationality, and as proxies for market expectations. Using more recent data and forming consensus forecasts from the I/B/E/S detail files, we reach different conclusions than Philbrick and Ricks [1991],...

The existence of base rate fallacy (BRF) bias is explored employing: (i) a context treatment with a narrative story applied to asset markets and (ii) an isomorphic abstract setting using balls-and-bingo cages. Probability estimates reflect a BRF bias in both treatments, but is stronger with...

The paper contrasts theories that explain diverse belief by asymmetric private information (in short PI) with theories which postulate agents use subjective heterogenous beliefs (in short HB). We focus on problems where agents forecast aggregates such as profit rate of the Samp;P500 and our...

There are many anomalies beyond the explanation capacity of CAPM and APT. Miller and his successive researchers shed some lights on the effects of trading, but their short constraints assumption and partial equilibrium analysis rule out the contributions of pessimists to asset prices. Without...

This paper extends the Santa Fe Artificial Stock Market Model (SFASM) studied by LeBaron, Arthur and Palmer (1999, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 23, 1487-1516) in two important directions. First, some might question whether it is reasonable to assume that traders are capable of...

This paper examines how market prices, volume, and traders' dividend expectations respond to public information releases in laboratory markets for a long-lived financial asset. The objective is to study deviations from the symmetric information risk-neutral rational expectations (RE) benchmark,...

We examine price formation in a simple static model with asymmetric information, an infinite number of risk neutral traders and no noise traders. Here we re-examine four results associated with rational expectations models relating to the existence of fully revealing equilibrium prices, the...