We show that some standard measures of inflation persistence in Chile have increased sharply in recent years. For the sample period between August 1998 and July 2008 we found that the half life of a shock to headline inflation is about 3 years. This is much higher that the half life of about 1...

We evaluate the inflationary impact of an oil shock on several components of the consumer price index for several countries including Chile. All the countries in our sample display a significant response in headline inflation, energy inflation and non-core inflation. We also find a significant...

In this paper we focus on combining out-of-sample test statistics of the Martingale Difference Hypothesis (MDH) to explore whether a new combined statistic may induce a test with higher asymptotic power. Asymptotic normality implies that more power can be achieved by finding the optimal weight...

In this article we explore the existence, robustness and size of the contribution that several activity measures make when predicting inflation in Chile. For that purpose, we use backward-looking Phillips curves and make use of a real-time database to get an evaluation of predictive ability...

In this paper we evaluate the Central Bank of Chile annual GDP growth forecasts over the period 1991-2009 using a real-time database. We compare the Central Bank of Chile forecasts with those of the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF), Consensus Forecasts, and simple time-series models. We...

Communication with the public is an ever-growing practice among central banks and complements their decisions of interest rate setting. In this paper we examine one feature of the communicational practice of the Central Bank of Chile (CBC) which summarizes the assessment of the Board about the...

: This work presents a review of the main indicators used in the technical analysis of the peso-dollar parity. We explain the interpretations carried out by technical analysts of these indicators and perform forecasting analysis of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to predict exchange rate...

The use of different time-series models to generate forecasts is fairly usual in the forecasting literature in general, and in the inflation forecast literature in particular. When the predicted variable is stationary, the use of processes with unit roots may seem counterintuitive. Nevertheless,...

The Central Bank of Chile builds inflation forecasts for several time horizons and using various methodologies. In this paper, we analyze one of these series of short-term inflation forecasts, which we call Auxiliary Inflation Forecasts (AIF), comparing them to forecasts made by private analysts...

We explore the ability of several univariate models to predict inflation in a number of countries and at several forecasting horizons. We place special attention on forecasts coming from a family of ten seasonal models that we call the Driftless Extended Seasonal ARIMA (DESARIMA) family. Using...