The paper uses long-run GDP data for developed countries drawn from Maddison (2003) to generate deviation cycles for the period from 1870 to 2001. The cyclical deviates are examined for their bilateral cross-correlation values in three separate periods, those of the first globalization wave...

We examine Italian inflation rates and the Phillips curve with a very long-run perspective, one that covers the entire existence of the Italian lira from political unification (1861) to the entry of Italy in the European Monetary Union (end of 1998). We first study the volatility, persistence...

In this essay we analyze the global financial crisis of the period 2007-2010. Particularly, we assess its origins, features and the responses given to deal with it from a theoretical and historical perspective. We conclude that the global crisis may not have a short-term solution due to the lack...

According to a Keynesian view, short term output fluctuations are normally demand side led. Since prices reflect demand, they should mirror output fluctuations. Thus, prices and output are expected to move in the same direction in the short run. The present paper investigates the historical...

The theme of this paper is whether there was a textbook-like Phillips Curve in post-WWII Italy. We estimate a standard model of the relationship between inflation and the level of real economic activity over the 1949-1998 period and find no evidence of a significant and positive feedback from...

We develop a common factor approach to reconstruct new business cycle indices for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico ("LAC-4") from an unprecedentedly comprehensive dataset spanning 135 years. We establish the robustness of our indices through a variety of tests, use the indices to explore...

We studied the cyclical and growth properties of Brazilian per capita output from 1850 to 2000. Contrary to the experience of some developed countries, we did not find large changes in the volatility of per capita output. However, we obtained evidence that the oscillations in economic activity...

This book collects essays, most of which were published earlier, into an advertisement for real business cycle (RBC) analysis. Half of the essays discuss the Great Depression; half discuss events of the 1980s and 1990s. They all use the general equilibrium model of economic growth to analyze...

This paper is a thoroughly revised and extended version of an article firstly published in the anthology "Moderne Wirtschaftsgeschichte" (München: Oldenbourg) in 1996. This book is an introduction to modern economic history for historians and economists. Accordingly this paper has to two...