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This paper investigates the effect of structural characteristics on debt limits of middle income countries. Two equations relate the probability of default to the interest rate. First, the probability of default is estimated with a logit model. Second, the assumption of non-arbitrage opportunity...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011914290
This paper provides robust empirical evidence that government effectiveness is a key determinant of sovereign defaults. Government effectiveness is measured by a broad-based perception index of the Worldwide Governance Indicators database (WGI) disseminated by the World Bank. Public debt and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011914292
With public debt soaring across the world, a growing concern is whether current debt levels are a harbinger of fiscal crises, thereby restricting the policy space in a downturn. The empirical evidence to date is however inconclusive, and the true cost of debt may be overstated if interest rates...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012843291
We develop a model of debt sustainability analysis with optimal financing decisions in the presence of macroeconomic, financial and fiscal uncertainty. We define a coherent measure of refinancing risk, and trade off the risks of debt stock and flow dynamics, subject to debt sustainability...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012847069
We model sovereign debt sustainability with optimal financing decisions under macroeconomic, financial, and fiscal uncertainty, with endogenous risk and term premia. Using a coherent risk measure we trade off debt stock and flow risks subject to sustainability constraints. We optimize static and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012851344
This paper studies the interaction between fiscal commitment and sovereign default risk in a model with optimal taxation and government spending. A time-inconsistency problem arises in our framework as the government cannot credibly commit to its future tax policies. As a result, it chooses...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012852455
Governments issue debt for good and bad reasons. While the good reasons-intertemporal tax-smoothing, fiscal stimulus, and asset management-can explain some of the increases in public debt in recent years, they cannot account for all of the observed changes. Bad reasons for borrowing are driven...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012868479
We consider convertible bonds that contractually stipulate payment standstill, contingent on a market indicator of a sovereign's creditworthiness breaching a distress threshold. This financial innovation limits ex-ante the likelihood of debt crises and imposes ex-post risk sharing between...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012855874
This paper examines the causes, processes, and outcomes of Barbados' 2018-19 sovereign debt restructuring-its first ever. The restructuring was comprehensive, featuring several rarely used approaches, including the restructuring of treasury bills, and the use of a retrofitted collective action...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012839317
This paper studies the impact of income inequality on sovereign spreads under elastic labor and endogenous taxation. We first document that high pre-tax income inequality is associated with high spreads both across countries and across U.S. states. We then develop a sovereign default model with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012840571