Estimating potential output and the output gap - the difference between actual output and its potential - is important for the proper conduct of monetary policy. However, the measurement and interpretation of potential output, and hence the output gap, is fraught with uncertainty, since it is...

This paper investigates two different procedures for the measurement of the NAIRU; one based on structural modeling while the other is a statisticai approach using Vector Auto Regression (VAR)-models. Both measurement procedures are assessed by confronting them with the dominant theory of...

Given limited research on monetary policy rules in emerging markets, this paper challenges the applicability of a nonlinear Taylor rule in characterizing the monetary policy behavior of the Brazilian Central Bank. It also investigates whether and how the process of setting interest rates has...

This book examines the phases of the Economic Stabilization Program from 1971 to 1974, analyzing the controls as an "income policy" tool that was part of the U.S. response to inflation.

The Black Sea region comprises a heterogeneous group of countries Bulgaria, Romania, Ukraine, Russia, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Turkey. Their economies differ in their size, institutional characteristics and integration perspectives, are facing vastly different problems, and find...

The present paper applies the Markov switching model with the aim of checking two industrial production features of six major Brazilian states. Firstly, we try to determine the date of business cycles and, soon afterwards, we verify the existence or not of an unobservable component that is...

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The bank as "general store" is slowly being replaced by the bank as conglomerate. This is because improvements in information technology and market efficiency are changing the way the activities of financial intermediaries are performed. The imperatives of cost minimization and competition have...

We develop a business cycle model in which consumption goods, physical capital, and human capital are produced in separate sectors. An important feature of the model is that human and machine inputs in the production process are treated symmetrically: each has both a stock and flow component....