Contents -- I. Introduction -- II. A Brief Guide Monetary Analysis in the ECB's Strategy and Its Evolution Since 1998 -- III. Survey of the Theoretical Debate -- IV. The Importance of Money for Inflation Forecasts -- V. Disaggregated Monetary Analysis -- VI. How Time Path Dependent Should the...

Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY: SOME PREVIOUS WORK -- III. OVERVIEW OF OUR METHODOLOGY -- IV. BRAZIL, 2000-05 -- V. MEXICO -- VI. TURKEY -- VII. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS -- APPENDIX ECONOMETRIC METHODOLOGY AND ESTIMATES -- REFERENCES.

We employ a set of sign restrictions on the generalized impulse responses of a Global VARmodel, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2–2011Q2, to discriminatebetween supply-driven and demand-driven oil-price shocks and to study the time profile oftheir macroeconomic effects...