This paper studies the effects of central bank intervention during the 1992- 1993 EMS crises on the D-mark/peseta and D-mark/French franc exchange rate. In particular, it is analyzed how interventions affected the probability of a speculative attack and market participants' expectations about...

We study the interaction of fiscal and monetary policies during a currency crisis in an economy with government nominal liabilities. We show that the stock and maturity of these liabilities are key determinants of the magnitude, timing and predictability of a devaluation. Among notable features...

The 'currency war', as it has become known, has three aspects: 1) the inflexible pegs of undervalued currencies; 2) recent attempts by floating exchange-rate countries to resist currency appreciation; 3) quantitative easing. Europe should primarily be concerned about the first issue, which...

Cambodia's economic and social achievements over the past ten years have been the most impressive in its history. Nevertheless, Cambodia today is still as dollarized, if not more so, than it was ten years ago. What is this so, and what, if anything, should the Government do? This paper attempts...

On September 3-4, 2009 SUERF and Utrecht University School of Economicsorganized the Colloquium "The Quest for Stability" in Utrecht, the Netherlands. The papers included in this SUERF Study are based on contributions to the Colloquium.

Central banks frequently intervene in foreign exchange markets. Using recognized criteria this report analyzes the probability of success in a data set of 4,500 intervention episodes in 33 countries. It is important to differentiate among exchange rate regimes because each focuses on a different...

Zentralbanken, zum Beispiel die schweizerische und die zahlreicher Schwellenländer, intervenieren häufig an Devisenmärkten. Es ist jedoch nicht unmittelbar festzustellen, ob diese Interventionen wirksam sind. Mittels anerkannter Kriterien analysiert dieser Bericht die...

We study the curious patterns of gold holding and trading by central banks during 1979-2010. With the exception of several discrete step adjustments, central banks keep maintaining passive stocks of gold, independently of the patterns of the real price of gold. We also observe the...

In this work we study the impact of FX interventions on Credit growth in Peru. Using Panel data at the firm-bank level from the Peruvian Credit Registry we find that purchases of dollars by the Central Bank are associated with reductions on the stock of credit held by Medium, Big and Corporate...

While virtually all currency crisismodels recognise that the fate of a currency peg depends onhow tenaciously policy makers defend it, they seldom model how this is done. We incorporatethemechanics of speculation and the interest rate defence against it in the model ofMorrisand Shin (American...