The risk sensitivity of international capital flow pressures is explored using a new Exchange Market Pressure index that combines pressures observed in exchange rate adjustments with model-based estimates of incipient pressures that are masked by foreign exchange interventions and policy rate...

In this paper, we study how the volatility of both realized and expected macroeconomic variables relates to the variation in exchange rate volatility through the prism of the Great Moderation hypothesis. We find significant heterogeneity in exchange rate trend volatility across currency pairs...

Not according to our data. We use two data sets to test whether professional forecasters follow uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) when making their exchange rate predictions both based on point prediction and direction. We find that professional forecasters generally do not follow UIP across...

The lion's share of smartphones, computers, televisions, semiconductor devices, and other electronics goods is made in East Asia. Final electronics goods are assembled in China, and sophisticated parts and components (P&C) such as semiconductor chips, image sensors, and ceramic filters in...

We leverage supervisory microdata to uncover the role of global banks' risk limits in driving exchange rate dynamics. Consistent with a model of currency intermediation under risk constraints, shocks to dealers' risk limits lead to price and quantity adjustments in the foreign exchange market....

The disconnect between the exchange rate and its macroeconomic fundamentals has been extensively discussed in the literature. It nonetheless continues to pose theoretical and empirical challenges in the literature. This study examines the relationship between the exchange rate and its...