The paper studies the default probabilities of the 47 Indian firms over period of 2007 to 2013. This study uses options based method to predict the probability of default of these firms over the assessment period. We has used Black, Scholes and Merton model in this paper. The study estimates the...

In this paper, we offer a new set of credit analysis models combining two traditional approaches of corporate default prediction: the survival analysis approach and the structural model approach. We first derive a modified version of the Black and Cox (1976) first passage model (a structural...

While empirical literature has documented a negative relation between default risk and stock returns, theory suggests that default risk should be positively priced. In this paper, we calculate monthly probabilities of default (PDs) for a large sample of European firms and break them down into...

This empirical examination of the effect of rollover risk on default risk uses a database of U.S. industrial firms during 1986-2011. This article represents the most comprehensive empirical study to date to support the existence of a rollover risk effect on default risk. This paper investigates...

We develop a structural model that incorporates both macroeconomic risks and firm-specific jump risks. Using this model, we derive analytic formulas for default probability, equity price, and CDS spreads. We show that including the two types of risk in credit risk modeling can generate better...

Short-term financing, e.g., asset-backed commercial paper (ABCP) or repurchase agreements (repo), was prevalent prior to the 2007-2008 financial crises. Banks funded by short-term debts, however, are exposed to rollover risk as the banks are unable to raise sufficient funds to finance their...

We examine whether CDS contracts written on individual banks are effective leading indicators of bank financial distress during a period of systemic bank crisis. Changes in CDS spreads are found to yield a robust signal of failure across a set of European and US banks, in keeping with indirect...