This study uses Markov-switching models to evaluate the informational content of the term structure as a predictor of recessions in eight OECD countries. The empirical results suggest that for all countries the term spread is sensibly modelled as a two-state regime-switching process. Moreover,...

Der Artikel hebt den Nutzen einer gemeinsamen Währung in der Eurozone für grenzüberschreitende wirtschaftliche Aktivitäten hervor.Es werden die Vorteile einheitlicher Finanzkonditionen zusammengetragen, die das Zusammenwachsen der Wirtschaftskreisläufe unterstützen.

In the new situation with flexible exchange rates, monetary policy in Europe will have to rely more on indicators than previously under fixed rates. One of the potential indicators, the forward interest rate curve, can be used to indicate market expectations of the time-paths of future short...