The paper provides probability estimates of the state of the GDP growth. A regime-switching model defines the probability of the Greek GDP being in boom or recession. Then probit models extract the predictive information of a set of explanatory (economic and financial) variables regarding the...

This paper considers factor forecasting with national versus factor forecasting with international data. We forecast German GDP based on a large set of about 500 time series, consisting of German data as well as data from Euro-area and G7 countries. For factor estimation, we consider standard...

In this study we introduce a new indicator for private consumption based on search query time series provided by Google Trends. The indicator is based on factors extracted from consumption-related search categories of the Google Trends application Insights for Search. The forecasting performance...

We suggest the use of an Internet job-search indicator (the Google Index, GI) as the best leading indicator to predict the US unemployment rate. We perform a deep out-of-sample forecasting comparison analyzing many models that adopt both our preferred leading indicator (GI), the more standard...

Genaue Prognosen von Absatzmöglichkeiten und Marktpotenzialen für Innovationen können heute ein entscheidender Faktor sein, um sich auf dem Markt zu behaupten. Ein verspäteter Markteintritt kann gravierende Auswirkungen auf den Umsatz und somit auf den Erfolg des Unternehmens haben. Dieser...

Das MOGBOT ist ein ökonometrisches Modell für die Zweige der deutschen Volkswirtschaft nach der Gliederung A*10 der Klassifikation WZ 2008 (ergänzt durch das Verarbeitende Gewerbe, Abschnitt C), die den Daten der Volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnungen nach der Generalrevision 2011 zugrunde...

This paper assesses the performance of a number of long-term interest rate forecast approaches, namely time series models, structural economic models, expert forecasts and combinations thereof. The predictive performance of these approaches is compared using out of sample forecast errors, where...

In any dataset with individual forecasts of economic variables, some forecasters will perform better than others. However, it is possible that these ex post differences reflect sampling variation and thus overstate the ex ante differences between forecasters. In this paper, we present a simple...