Using annual time series data on net FDI inflows for Nigeria from 1960 to 2017, the study analyzes net FDI inflows using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller tests show that Nigeria FDI net FDI inflows data is I (1). Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA...

We document whether a simple, univariate model for quarterly GDP growth is able to deliver forecasts in a crisis period like the Covid-19 pandemic, which may serve cross-checking forecasts obtained from elaborate and expert models used by forecasting institutions. We include shocks to the log...

The aim of the paper is to analyze the ability of internet activity, what has been called Google econometrics, to predict unemployment in Spain. We include a new predictor for Spanish unemployment based on internet information provided by Google Trends. Using monthly data from January 2004 to...

In this paper we compare forecasts of unemployment rates of the Baltic States using time-varying parameter models. We are particularly interested in dynamic asymmetries in unemployment rates and the forecasting performance of different models in different times. We consider each predictor in...

Most of the official data are released with a lag period, which increases the difficulties for decision-makers assessing the situation. To solve the problem of data lag, we used real-time Baidu Index to nowcast the Chinese consumer behavior of buying the bestselling smartphone, Huawei Mate 7. We...

Building on a mixed data sampling (MIDAS) model we evaluate the predictive power of a variety of monthly macroeconomic indicators for forecasting quarterly Chinese GDP growth. We iterate the evaluation over forecast horizons from 370 days to 1 day prior to GDP release and track the release days...

The authors present an alternative version of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI), which is constructed using a methodology that allows for a more robust treatment of the underlying data series than its traditional methodology. This alternative CFNAI produces superior predictions of...

We analyze forecasts of consumption, nonresidential investment, residential investment, government spending, exports, imports, inventories, gross domestic product, inflation, and unemployment prepared by the staff of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System for meetings of the...

This paper presents a MIDAS type mixed frequency VAR forecasting model. First, we propose a general and compact mixed frequency VAR framework using a stacked vector approach. Second, we integrate the mixed frequency VAR with a MIDAS type Almon lag polynomial scheme which is designed to reduce...

This paper presents a MIDAS type mixed frequency VAR forecasting model. First, we propose a general and compact mixed frequency VAR framework using a stacked vector approach. Second, we integrate the mixed frequency VAR with a MIDAS type Almon lag polynomial scheme which is designed to reduce...