This study evaluates oil price forecasts based on their economic significance for macroeconomic predictions. More specifically, we first use the current state-of-the-art frameworks to forecast monthly oil prices and subsequently we use these forecasts, as oil price assumptions, to predict...

We propose a useful way to predict building permits in the US, exploiting rich real-time data from web search queries. The time series on building permits is usually considered as a leading indicator of economic activity in the construction sector. Nevertheless, new data on building permits are...

In this paper we compare forecasts of unemployment rates of the Baltic States using time-varying parameter models. We are particularly interested in dynamic asymmetries in unemployment rates and the forecasting performance of different models in different times. We consider each predictor in...

The proposed foresight methods are based on predicting values of capitalization functions of the cluster companies and on calculating the best possible equivalent portfolio of the cluster companies using arbitrage techniques. In this respect, the capitalization functions are contingent upon two...

The focus of this paper is on nowcasting and forecasting quarterly private consumption. The selection of real-time, monthly indicators focuses on standard (“hard”/“soft” indicators) and less-standard variables. Among the latter group we analyze: i) proxy indicators of economic and policy...

Using annual time series data on net FDI inflows for Nigeria from 1960 to 2017, the study analyzes net FDI inflows using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller tests show that Nigeria FDI net FDI inflows data is I (1). Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA...

In this study, the performance and rationality of the gross domestic product growth forecasts by the World Bank (WB) for six regional aggregates and 130 individual countries between 1999 and 2019 are assessed. A large body of literature examines macroeconomic forecasts for advanced economies by...

This study assesses the performance of the GDP growth forecasts by European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) for 38 countries between 1994 and 2019. It presents the following results. First, forecast performances improve over time. Second, the projections are mostly conservative,...

The accuracy of macroeconomic forecast depends on various factors, most importantly the mix of analytical methods used by the individual forecasters, the way that their personal experience is shaping their identification strategies, but also their efficiency in translating new information into...

Macro-economic forecasts are often based on the interaction between econometric models and experts. A forecast that is based only on an econometric model is replicable and may be unbiased, whereas a forecast that is not based only on an econometric model, but also incorporates an expert's touch,...