We examine government bond factor premiums in a deep global sample from 1800 to 2020 spanning the major markets and maturities. Bond factors (Value, Momentum, Low-risk) offer attractive premiums that do not decay across samples, are persistent over time, and consistent across various market and...

edging short gamma exposure requires trading in the direction of price movements,thereby creating price momentum. Using intraday returns on over 60 futures on equities,bonds, commodities, and currencies between 1974 and 2020, we document strong “marketintraday momentum” everywhere. The...

Decision-makers show an increased risk appetite when they gamble with previously won money, the house money effect, and when they have a chance to make up for a prior loss, the break even effect. To explore the origins of these effects, we use functional magnetic resonance imaging to record the...

We examine the risky choices of contestants in the popular TV game show quot;Deal or No Dealquot; and related classroom experiments. Contrary to the traditional view of expected utility theory, the choices can be explained in large part by previous outcomes experienced during the game. Risk...

We examine the predictability of government bond returns using a deep sample spanning 70 years of international data across the major bond markets. Using an economic, trading-based testing framework we find strong economic and statistical evidence of bond return predictability with a Sharpe...

We study individual portfolio choice in a laboratory experiment and find strong evidence for heuristic behavior. The subjects tend to focus on the marginal distribution of an asset, while largely ignoring its diversification benefits. They follow a conditional 1/n diversification heuristic as...