We document a striking change in index return serial dependence across 20 major market indexes covering 15 countries in North America, Europe, and Asia. While many studies found serial dependence to be positive until the 1990s, it switches to negative since the 2000s. This change happens in most...

This paper makes a breakdown of common Fama-French style equity factor portfolios into their long and short legs. We find that factor premiums originate in both legs, but that (i) most added value tends to come from the long legs, (ii) the long legs of factors offer more diversification than the...

We examine the predictability of government bond returns using a deep sample spanning 70 years of international data across the major bond markets. Using an economic, trading-based testing framework we find strong economic and statistical evidence of bond return predictability with a Sharpe...

High-risk stocks do not have higher returns than low-risk stocks in all major stock markets. This paper provides a comprehensive overview of this low-risk effect, from the earliest asset pricing studies in the nineteen seventies to the most recent empirical findings and interpretations since....

We study the performance of equity styles during the period around the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918-1919 and other deep historical market corrections to gain a deeper understanding on the performance of different groups of stocks during crises. We extend the widely used CRSP database with...

We study individual portfolio choice in a laboratory experiment and find strong evidence for heuristic behavior. The subjects tend to focus on the marginal distribution of an asset, while largely ignoring its diversification benefits. They follow a conditional 1/n diversification heuristic as...

We examine framing effects by analyzing how risky choice depends on the absolute and relative size of the amounts at stake, using an extensive sample of choices from ten different editions of the large-stake TV game show Deal or No Deal. Our analyses within and across the samples suggest that...