This paper shows that the government can achieve its precommitment outcome in monetary policy when output follows an autoregressive process, by offering the central banker a linear inflation contract, and where the parameters of the contract depend on lagged output. This note therefore offers an...

In this paper I address the following questions. - Has the business cycle become longer and shallower? And why? - How stabilizing is monetary policy. In answering these questions I summarize recent research undertaken by Adrian Pagan and myself that formalizes the procedures developed by Burns...

The U.S. Great Inflation of the 1970s was characterized by repeated, failed attempts at disinflation by the Federal Reserve as well as periods of inaction despite rising inflation. Previous research has attributed these failures to policymakers’ “misperceptions” about monetary policy and...

Developments in the information and communication technologies have been causing significant changes on the working mechanisms of the economy both at the national and international areas. Some of the developments can be indicated as follows: the dramatic increasing of capital movements amongst...

In a New Keynesian model with asymmetric information we show that publication of macroeconomic projections and of the future interest rate path by the central bank can improve macroeconomic outcomes. However, the gains from publishing interest rate paths are small relative to those from...

Until the 19th and mid-20th centuries, economic theory explained that the economic status of a country was represented by the strength of its currency. This strength is measured by the exchange rate of one currency vis-á-vis another currency, a “zero-sum” game in which one currency gains...

I estimate DSGE models with recurring regime changes in monetary policy (inflation target and reaction coefficients), technology (growth rate and volatility), and/or nominal price rigidities. In the models, agents are assumed to know deep parameter values but make probabilistic inference...

Until the 19th and mid-20th centuries, economic theory explained that the economic status of a country was represented by the strength of its currency.2 This strength is measured by the exchange rate of one currency vis-á-vis another currency, a “zero-sum” game in which one currency gains...