role played by inflation expectations and the money supply shocks during major oil shock episodes. These shocks partially … replace roles previously attributed to the precautionary oil demand shock and the aggregate demand shock during the three … major oil shock periods of the 1970s-1980s, post-2008 and during the 2020-2021 pandemic. The results show that both real oil …

-absorption effect (i.e., decrease in US imports owing to reduced domestic demand) or increase in world interest rate appears stronger …

An n-variable structural vector auto-regression (SVAR) can be identified (up to shock order) from the evolution of the … process. I propose a new identification argument that identifies the SVAR up to shock orderings using the autocovariance … structure of second moments of the residuals implied by an arbitrary stochastic process for the shock variances. These higher …

post-World War II quarterly variables fully describing the US economy. I show that both endogenous and exogenous shocks to …