Interest rates and the spreads between interest rates are widely regarded as useful indicators of the future level of economic activity. This paper shows that when these series are divided into (i) an ordinary time series process and (ii) the effects of extraordinary disturbances, only the...

This research extends the literature on the revealed preference analysis of macroeconomic aggregates in multiple ways. The relevance of recent methodological changes in data construction is our first topic, as Varian's (1982, 1983) nonparametric tests are run on U.S. consumption series built...