I show that the detrending of financial variables with the Hodrick and Prescott (1981, 1997) (HP) and band-pass filters leads to spurious cycles. I find that distortions become especially severe when considering medium-term cycles, i.e., cycles that exceed the duration of regular business...

This paper studies the features of sectoral economic downturns in agriculture, industry and services sectors using an extensive database of 127 countries for the period 1970-2013. Our analysis shows that there are stark differences in the frequency and severity of economic downturns across...

We derive a measure of aggregate systemic risk, designated CATFIN, that complements bank-specific systemic risk measures by forecasting macroeconomic downturns six months into the future using out-of-sample tests conducted with US, European and Asian bank data. Consistent with bank...

This book examines the performance of the Brazilian economy since the Great Financial Crisis of 2007/2008 with focus on both the productive and financial dimensions, along with distributional and social issues. The book will bring to light the causes of the fast recovery over 2009-2010 as well...

This paper mainly examines the effect of financial development on the recession, while controlling for potential recession factors. Using panel data of 129 countries spanning 1990-2010, we implemented "Locally Weighted Scatterplot Smoothing", "Local Linear" and "Iteratively Reweighted Least...

Unprecedented monetary policy accommodation in advanced economies and a large, coordinated fiscal stimulus by G20 countries helped to support a solid rebound in global output right after the 2009 Global Recession. However, global growth subsequently slowed to a sluggish pace by pre-recession...