This article outlines two general approaches to disentangle expected defaults and anticipated devaluations from distressed sovereign spreads. The first uses affine term structure models and uncovered interest rate parity to extract a schedule between risk-neutral devaluation odds and exchange...

The Euro area has a unique monetary authority that governs money creation, but several individual-countries’ sovereign debts that differ in terms of safety. We analyse: i) the interactions between the financial and real sector in such an environment; ii) the role of government bonds as...