Are the changes in the future technology process, the so-called “news shocks,” the main contributors to the macroeconomic fluctuations in Japan over the past forty years? In this paper, we take two structural vector-auto-regression (SVAR) approaches to answer this question. First, we...

What is the driving force of the macroeconomic fluctuations in Japan over the past forty years? To answer this question, we specify a structural vectorerror-correction model using combination of long-run and short-run restrictions. Especially by dividing the supply shocks such as neutral and...

This paper theoretically analyzes the Early Warning System (EWS) of the IMF based on the principal-agent model. We search for trade-off of the optimal contract of the IMF under the interim intervention and the noise of the signal. The main findings are as follows. First, when the net loss coming...

This paper attempts to reconcile the controversy regarding Japan's total factor productivity during its slump in the 1990s by clarifying the role of capital utilization. Hayashi and Prescott (2002) emphasized that the decline in the exogenous total factor productivity growth rate was the main...